หลายวันก่อน ผมอ่านเรื่องน่าสนใจบน OSNews.com เกี่ยวกับ adblocking ถูกนำเข้าสู่ iOS 9 ระบบปฏิบัติการ de jour บน iPhone 6 และการตั้งค่า default ใหม่นี้จะส่งผลต่อโลกมือถืออย่างไร และในมาตราส่วนกว้างขึ้น long term โลกของ advertisement ไม่แน่ใจว่าพวกเขาย้อนกลับในการตัดสินใจนั้นหรือไม่ หรือว่าจะเกิดขึ้นจริง แต่ถ้าเกิดขึ้น ดูด้านล่าง
เรื่องราวนั้นทำให้ผมคิด ว่าอินเทอร์เน็ตจะเปลี่ยนอย่างไร หากและเมื่อ big players ตัดสินใจปรับ strategy และเริ่มเปลี่ยนวิธีที่ content และ marketing ถูกนำเสนอให้ end user มาดูกันว่าควรคาดหวังอะไรในอนาคต มุมมองของผม และคุณควรฟัง นี่จะเป็นบทความ extremely long และ convoluted ไม่ได้เล่น ตามมา
อนาคตของอินเทอร์เน็ต Image credits: A Che, freeimages.com
There can be only one
วิธีที่ดีที่สุดในการมองอนาคตคือมองย้อนกลับและดูว่าอดีตมีอะไรให้ เนื่องจากเราไม่ได้เปลี่ยนแปลงทางสังคมมากใน 30,000 ปีที่ผ่านมา บทเรียนจากทศวรรษที่ผ่านนานมาควรค่อนข้าง valuable - และ accurate และ relevant ในการพยากรณ์อีกไม่กี่ทศวรรษ
ดังนั้น เราต้องการ TV และ radio เป็น baseline ก่อน TV ตลอดปี สื่อบันเทิงนี้แข็งแกร่งเป็น tightly controlled, tightly regulated system กับ several big corporations ครอบครองคลื่นเสนอ tightly governed channels เต็มไปด้วย content ที่ออกแบบมาเพื่อ thrill และ excite specific demographic groups elicit และ provoke incense และ addict และสุดท้ายทำให้คุณใช้เวลามากขึ้น engaged ผมใช้คำ loosely
กาลเก่า พวกเขาเคยวางบนหน้าของตัวเอง Image credits: Jurgen Parg, freeimages.com
บนสุดของนั้น อย่างน้อยข้าม US-Europe division บนฝั่งไกลของสระน้ำ คุณได้ shiny advertisement services ซึ่งเกิดขึ้น ก่อน หลัง และตลอดเวลา ตลอด aired movies และ series และ shows slice of primetime ที่มีค่านี้ถูกเช่าให้ highest bidder โดยบริษัทที่ keen บนการโปรโมท services และ products ของพวกเขา มันดูเหมือนจะทำงาน มิฉะนั้น ไม่มีจุดทำมัน
นอกจาก neurotic overload ของข้อมูล typical viewing session ประกอบด้วย short bursts ของ content ตามด้วย crap ตามด้วย content อีกนิดหน่อย quality ไม่ว่า สำหรับ documentaries สิ่งต่างๆ แย่กว่า เพราะ slow narration และ info recaps ที่ออกแบบมาเพื่อ squeeze น้อยที่สุดของ actual data ลงใน air time มากที่สุด ใน a nutshell นี่คือ subscription TV ของคุณ ไม่ว่าจะเป็น satellite, cable หรือ other
ถ้าคุณคิด นี่คือสิ่งที่ Internet อาจจะกลายเป็นวันหนึ่ง มาพิจารณาตัวอย่างที่สอง radio ที่นี่ สถานการณ์คล้ายกันดำเนินต่อไปนานจน TV กลายเป็น dominant media และ radio สิ้นสุดลงไป relative obscurity แม้ ads ยังคง rampant และ tactics เดียวกันถูกใช้ เพราะ somewhat lower costs ที่เกี่ยวข้องกับ management ของ radio programs และ fact มันเป็น niche product มากกว่า มี somewhat higher chance ของการค้นหา valuable content
ถ้าคุณคิด อาจจะเป็นอนาคตของ Internet มาพูดถึงสิ่งที่ Internet ทำให้เรา ด้านหนึ่ง มันอนุญาตให้คุณ consume adult entertainment บน unprecedented level และสามารถ communicate กับเพื่อนและ strangers ครึ่งทางข้ามโลก ด้วย ease เดียวกับ เพื่อนบ้าน หรือแม้แต่ง่ายกว่า แต่อีกด้าน มันยัง introduce completely unregulated, free-for-all, total-equality way สำหรับ random, ordinary people ไม่ associated กับ big media corporations เพื่อเสนอ content ของพวกเขาให้ wider audience มันมี same effect เหมือน crossbow มีต่อ knighthood ในศตวรรษที่ 15 ทุกอย่างกะทันหัน any little pleb สามารถฆ่า knight ได้ด้วยแค่สองสามชั่วโมงของ outdoor training
ตลอด just 20 years billions of websites ได้มา alive รันโดย individuals ไม่มี political หรือ monetary goals เสิร์ฟ ideas และ stories ของตัวเอง The power ที่จะเป็น just as entertaining และ amusing ถูกเอาออกจาก old guard และให้กับทุกคน Streaming และ video ทำให้สิ่งต่างๆ เข้าถึงได้ง่ายขึ้น
Smart people ตระหนักว่ามี huge mass ของคนเขียน content โดยปกติฟรี และพวกเขามี readership consume content - อีกครั้งฟรี เพื่อที่พวกเขา introduce model ของ passive advertisement alongside content อนุญาตให้คน sort of choose ว่าจะ focus บน article หรือ little boxes ขายของให้พวกเขา และ כך online advertisement world ถูกสร้าง และกลายเป็น flagship strategy สำหรับ some of the biggest companies 那里
For he who controls content - can also control how the ads are used 和 hand in hand manage their profits Information กลายเป็น currency และ idea ของ non-affiliated people ทำ random stuff ของพวกเขา transformed into global agenda
At the moment ...
所以 我们 现在 有 的 是 一种 Wild West Internet 在很大程度上 是 free, accessible 由 everyone, 给 anyone, 和 在 大多数 情况下 只要 有 一点 技能 耐心 钱 和 渴望 学习 你 可以 有 你 自己 的 blog 有 种 status quo 你 consume 信息 提供 由 giants 即 Google 和 一些 朋友 来 访问 content 提供 由 everyone else 而 你 使用 mighty search engines 来 digest 信息 easily 和 quickly 反过来 你 支付 tithe 通过 享受 hybrid content-ad model 它 已经 成为 big source of revenue 为 信息 提供者
And this is where it all becomes tricky.
It's all about control
我们 建立 信息 = 钱 如果 你 不 控制 信息 你 不 真正 影响 你的 收入 你 可以 参与 你 可以 尝试 跟随 guidelines 从 those 在 控制 所有 数据 但 最终 你 在 慈悲 下 的 those 在 舵 的 information starship 所以 什么 发生 如果 你的 business model 不同?
所以 我们 转移 focus 从 Google 到 Apple 在某种程度上 smartphones 是 really nice way of making money 当 你 实现 smartphone apps 只是 standalone websites 呈现 给 你 在 fancy way 你 实现 谁 controls app ecosystem 也 controls 方式 信息 flows
But not the information itself. That one still belongs to Google (and the rest). And the little people behind their billions of websites.
所以 对于 Apple 要 能够 fully master 它的 domain 即 iPhone 和 任何东西 在里面 它 也 需要 控制 content 但 你 不能 控制 Internet 所以 你 可以 做 的 是 break the content-ad balance
Now it becomes interesting
这是 ad-blocking 发挥作用 的 地方 它 粉碎 情况 我们 有 今天 你 是 free 使用 content any which way 你 want 但 你 也 有 freedom 选择 是否 看 或 使用 ads 在 any way Internet 在 2015 仍然 足够 flexible 允许 anyone 完全 master 他们 自己 的 share of visible information 即使 他们 不能 fully control all of it
确实 那一个 仍然 属于 Google 和 平均 无论 你 看到 什么 是 designed/optimized 给 你 most Google-profitable set of data 如果 你 思考 它 一点点 更 深刻 你 consume websites 你 找到 通过 search 但 什么 决定 presented information 的 rank? 除非 你 点击 每个 单一 link 和 enjoy all of the available content equally 那么 你 effectively limiting 自己 到 top searches 在 search engines 无论 Google, Yahoo, Bing, 或 DuckDuckGo 和 这 意味著 无论 algorithms 放 什么 那里 first 将 成为 你的 view of the world 仍然 search bosses 不能 控制 什么 people 在 far end of the link 在写 但 他们 确定 可以 决定 是否 给 你 那 信息 或 不 基于 他们的 strategy 和 那 largely means money. Profitable information 是 preferred information
但 真相 是 没人 真正 知道 Google 和 朋友们 如何 做 他们的 magic 然而 看到 trend 朝向 mobile 方式 desktop content 被 penalized 或 marginalized 在 last few years 很容易 deduce 整体 business model 而 你 不能 真的 生气 或 责怪 anyone 那就是 它如何 是 此外 你 仍然 有 freedom 选择 any search engine 你 want 你 可以 ignore links 使用 alternative search engines 使用 RSS feeds 和 skip searches altogether 任何东西 仍然 free 做 as you please
Ad-blocking ที่ integrated เข้าไปใน chief mobile platform อาจจะเปลี่ยนทั้งหมด 那 disruption of the content-ad balance - และ 我们 仍然 没有 argued 如果 那一个 是 good 或 bad 它 是 什么 它 是 - 意味著 Internet WILL 改变 如何? 看 TV 看 radio 而现在 extrapolate
Best case scenario (LOLZ)
如果 我们 幸运 Internet 的 power 是 那样 它 不能 被 stopped 当然 这 不会 发生 别 naive 愚蠢的 你 我们 将 确实 不得不 focus 于 alternative 它 不 entitle 你 到 much happiness 或 freedom 我 怕
Worst case scenario
Ever wondered 为什么 有 so much focus 于 digital piracy? 它 不 只是 关于 loss of revenue 哪个 arguably low 或 high 或 whatever 它 关于 control 记得 pirate TV channels 和 如何 ruthlessly 他们 would get cracked down? 或 radio? The big guys 那里 control everything 而 你 不能 get 你的 slice of pie 你 不能 Ever 添加 你自己的 content 进入 these media 你 不能 Ever
Piracy represents a breakdown of a tight monopoly that's been around for several good, hard decades, and it's now being projected into the world of Internet - with massive resistance from the public, who have finally been liberated from the yoke of moronity TV, constant ads that you cannot skip or block, and being able to read articles that do not stink of bias and cheap populism. Sure, 90% of the Internet is still crap, but it's less than the 100% pure feces that mainstream TV is. 10% out of billions is still a whole lot of great stuff to enjoy. For a very long time.
Think about it. A plebeian revolution. Any peasant can write a website that can be as successful as a shitty domain run by a big company with its army of developers and marketing drones. Just think of the power the Internet has given the common man, the guy with prose and wit and only 20 dollars in their pocket, and yet, they can defeat big companies, their words ring true, and their content is gold. Oh, the blasphemy!
The day the common man made it big, sort of.
And so, if you want to make money, you must control the info. That one is almost a lost cause. Google owns it. End of story. And it is also slowly, but surely misusing it and subverting it to its own needs. Just by pushing down things it considers less worthy. My name is on the same list, because I'm not trying to paddle a mobile app that counts your farts or Facebook likes. Again, that's the reality. It won't change overnight, but it might, if the collective mind gets fed up with bullshit.
But the content is still in the hands of ordinary people. Mostly, most of it. And now, finally, money comes into play. Ordinary people are writing content. For free. No one is paying. Wait. Google is paying them. Ad companies, whose ads are displayed on these sites, are paying a percentage of their income, as a result of these sites being there, peddling their content, and having their users react to and interact with the ads. Boom. The online money model!
E-moniez
So the info is in the hands of the middle class, and they are even getting paid for it. Golly! And the people are using the money to pay for the running costs of managing websites and having them hosted somewhere. The lucky ones are actually making a handsome profit, and then we get into a whole different universe of how profit is subverting content. The same way media companies garner ratings and views by offering bad and shocking news, the sites generate traffic by offering cheap controversy and drama.
We are seeing a continuous degradation and dilution of content, more paid or sponsored articles that are veiled advertisements or endorsements of dubious products and crap, and the general average of content is leaning toward the common denominator, which happens to be a thoroughly inbred moron that you may call the average Internet user.
Money ... Yes, ordinary folks are making money. From ads. Some people like it, some don't, but we still have a rough, delicate status quo. But now, no more ads, and the situation is changing. Since we're talking mobile, the apps are being affected. Well, let's call them standalone mobile websites, and it all makes sense again. Indeed. People are going to be losing revenue, and this means that those who can no longer afford to make content for free will gradually disappear.
If you're in for the money, you are doing it wrong
Of course, if and ever your one and only goal was to get rich by writing an app or peddling cheap content, then you don't really deserve to survive. Creating content, creating art is all about self-fulfillment and helping others. If you're in for a quick exit, then you don't belong online. You should not. You are the poison that's killing the Web. That's the sad reality of it. Feel free to be offended, but if the taint of greed is your chief motivation, then your content will reflect it. And when there's greed, there's profit, and that means bias, and that means skewed information. Basically lies, deception, untrustworthy information. Crap.
However, not everyone is there to milk Mother Internet off its digital teat. Some people genuinely are dependent on the income they generate from ads to be able to sustain their hobbies, and if that trickle goes away, their content goes away. And surely, like any big purging, the way Apple is supposedly doing it, the small fish shall vanish. Survival of the fittest.
Who is going to survive? The big guns, of course. Those with deep pockets and long-term stamina to weather changes and emerge with new business ideas and policies that align with the new strategy. Forget information, it's going to change to match the new format. Untrustworthy by design, to begin with, but then, how much of the info you see on the Internet can you really trust? All of it. If it's online, it's must be true. Right?
Back to Apple, if you are able to follow my uber-convoluted genius train of thoughts. Apple cuts ads, sites go away. Information, content, that's Google and friends. A change in balance. But what do we get instead? What fills the vacuum?
To ad or not to ad
Before we discuss the future in earnest, let's discuss the business around ads. Many Internet users are opposed to ads, because they are a remnant of the old guard and decades of TV oppression, they are essentially useless, they are intrusive, and they are overall crap. Others don't mind them, and some actually use them, which is why the model is still very much alive.
So if you ask people opposed to ads, they ought to go away. Others may tell you they are a necessary evil that maintains the current balance and helps the Internet and its millions of tiny content creators survive in the shadow of the giants. Others yet may argue they are necessary, but this is an ideological argument that follows the earlier US-Europe divide.
Then, to make things worse, some people are trying to make money by playing both camps, and that's called acceptable ads. Which means someone is using their judgment, and it's based on profit and therefore useless, to decide what should or should not meet the filtering criteria.
Therefore, ads must exist in their full form - yes, they should be created in an elegant manner, and there's tons of improvement to be done - or not at all. In between does not cut it. So, we now need to discuss the world based on these two scenarios. The second one is, based on what I've read, being embraced, with exceptions of course, by Apple on its mobile platform.
This is where our earlier worst case scenario comes into place.
Ads are gone. Millions of websites are gone. You are left with big guys, and the big guys have a known template for success. Highly controlled content designed to maximize profit. And much like TV, there's no separation between ads and content anymore. The same way you cannot - or could not - skip ads in TV shows or movies, the new model does not permit any flexibility in your desire not to enjoy crap. But you must endure it. Closed systems do not allow input from the common man.
Welcome to the worst case scenario
Twenty years from now, there are no ads, but your content is essentially one big innuendo, trying to guide you toward doing things that will make the publisher most money. True for games, true for consumer product reviews, true for anything. Manipulate the content, and you rule the game. If you can't control the Internet ...
No problem. Cut it off. Ads are gone, sites are dead, big guys left. Bingo.
But I hatez ads!
Yes, me too. They represent that suit-and-tie red-cheeked glassy-eyed dodgy door-to-door salesmen mentality of the 50s capitalism, where innovation takes a humble third place after greed and maximized profits. Everything that you want to despise and more. I am also a hypocrite, because I have them on my site. Why? Managing server costs, hardware used for and in the reviews, and whatnot. The same as thousands of other tech bloggers.
However, at the same time, the ads do allow ordinary people to create content, see above. Some will do it no matter what, see above. But some genuinely need money to sustain their website work. A lucky few don't. Of course, the cruel Internet community is not forthcoming with its donations and help. Don't bet your luck there. So perhaps the compromise would be to make better ads. But is there a different way to make it all happen?
Support your sites, or bear the consequences. Image credits: Istvan Markus, freeimages.com.
Well, technically, non-profit organizations are an answer to that. If you had governments sponsor and foster innovation and creativity to include free website hosting for everyone, then technically, we could have an ad-free world. That would be lovely. But it's not going to happen, and that's why we need the compromise.
Which means there should be an Internet standard. Not one according to Google. Not one according to whoever feels like bending rules to their own profit. The same way the Internet has its protocols, the same way net neutrality exists - and is being challenged all the time by people who want the TV model for your pr0n - there must be an HTML standard for ads. In other words, limit what non-site content can do and how it may be displayed. But that can be easily worked around. A legal requirement, then? Not gonna happen.
I don't have all the answers what the HTML ad protocol should be, but there should be one, and all other company-designed and sponsored stuff should be put to a swift and merciless death. But if media codecs are a lesson, as long as big money rules the tubes, we won't be seeing any altruistic protocols that prevent big companies from trying to manipulate content. The price of having a free Internet.
So you do need to choose a lesser evil. Do you want the TV model? Or can you live with the digital diarrhea that's called ads? If so, are you willing to do anything to help the little guy survive in the big game? Probably not, right. Still, worth thinking about it, even for one second.
There is hope
Radio. Going back to our best case scenario, there will always be niche market for good content. Creativity and innovation cannot really be stopped. Even in the dark ages and medieval times, people found ways to carry on, despite oppression. Radio has survived, and it's a viable entertainment platform, and good content will remain around, even though it may become more difficult to find and access. Even now, high quality content is far and few in between, and rarer by the day. Ask yourselves, how many really good and interesting sites do you really read? A dozen? Out of billions.
Well, in a way, you can be thankful for what Apple is doing - and I'm saying this as a shareholder who's considering dumping his load back to the sea. I don't consume any mainstream media, any cable, anything of that kind. Pure and utter garbage. No doubts. No seconds thoughts. I know there's nothing worthy for me to even begin considering any of that. Plus I save loads of money, and instead, I use it to buy content that I like, and here, we should be thankful of the explosion of online media and streaming, as it's made so much of that closely guarded content available.
Here, you should choose carefully. Go with companies that do not use DRM. Don't buy from those who would stream encrypted content. Don't let them control you. Vote with your money. Which is why I'm never going to put my credit card details on my iPhone. Very simple. Before you say anything, I did not buy the device, it's been given for free, and I'm using it to see what this world has to offer, so I can choose not to use it. Get it?
So Apple may narrow down its ecosystem. Awesome. The more isolated mainstream stuff becomes the better. We should be all grateful for that. I am looking forward to the day where my interaction with the collective moronity of this day is limited to a login page that forces me to use an integrated platform that belongs to a mobile service by one of the big guys. Today, you can still stumble upon random crap everywhere. If it all goes behind one big closed wall. Bloody awesome.
Isolation is salvation. Image credits: Christine Ma, freeimages.com.
Of course, all of this is exaggeration. In a way, in the short run, what Apple is doing isn't that bad. They are cleaning up, but the collateral damage will hurt more than it will help. High quality content will become less available. I sure won't shed tears for anyone who's stepped into the game purely for money. In the longer run, it will become more and more difficult to find untainted information, but then, we will need to adapt. The simplest solution is to block everything you no longer trust. And if Apple assists in that, great. Once websites, I mean "apps" start peddling their guided content in a way that is meant to compensate for revenue lost from blocked ads, then you will know when to stop using those apps and go elsewhere.
Don't expect these apps to suddenly focus on high-quality content. Won't happen. If they wanted high-quality content, they'd have done it in the first place. Ergo, you should be thankful. Apple is helping you having to suffer less stupidity. Great. Morons will enjoy shit in their padded cells, and you will look from the sidelines, all high and mighty and with your own tiny but classy corner of the Web. Don't ask for more. It's good enough.
Conclusion
Alas, not everyone will have the skill to smell crap and dodge it. Which is why the future won't be really bright. It will be well guided, that's for sure. You should also focus on cherishing these first decades of the Internet, because the abundance and naivety will never come back. Look at the civil aviation. The transcontinental first class, or even economy flights, have not become more luxurious than they used to be. Cheaper, yes, but better, hell no. The same way here, the more consumer oriented the Internet becomes, the more it will be about margins, profits, minimizing quality and maximizing revenue, pushing it to the very limit of corporate greed.
What you can do, as a reader, is give love to your favorite sites. Forget about ads. They are irrelevant. If you really support your authors and creators, they will ditch the ads themselves. And if you're creating content, ask yourselves, why. Money? GTFO. Passion? Then, whatever Apple and Google and whoever else is doing doesn't really matter. You are already invincible.
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